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THE US PRE-ELECTION POLLS
8 min readHere we go again. Commentary on the 2024 pro-election polls reveals some truths about American politics and polls, but also exposes the ups and downs of poll misunderstandings – as well as some very real issues with American elections.
This year, around 80 elections, including many for president, will occur globally. They provide opportunities to gauge public preferences and interpret voting intentions through surveys, but there are also illegitimate efforts aimed at confused voters.
In 2016, the political polling industry was hit by a humiliation from which it still has not recovered. All the predictions were wrong: Donald Trump, not Hillary Clinton, was heading to the White House, and trust in polling plummeted.